As the average price of gas per litre reaches an all-time high in Canada, experts warn that Canadians will continue to pay steep prices at the pump as Russia’s attack on Ukraine puts even greater pressure on the oil market.
Many provinces saw record-high prices this week, ranging from $1.60 cents per litre or higher in Ontario to $1.86 in Metro Vancouver, with analysts warning that a whopping 10-cent per litre rise is likely approaching.
“[Gas prices] are headed north and they’re headed towards record territory,” Canadians for Affordable Energy president Dan McTeague told CTV News Wednesday.
“We are definitely looking at a scenario where at least one full 10-cent increase is definitely in the offing and that would assume there is no further disturbance to the global supply of oil.”
High demand for oil combined with a shortage of supply has been pushing oil prices, and consequently, gas prices up for weeks.
The unfolding crisis in Ukraine is aggravating concerns about a further loss of oil supply, leading to dramatic price increases.
“We’re emerging from COVID with a likely pent-up demand that is going to aggravate that situation. Then along comes Vladimir Putin using the vulnerability of Europe and the fact that they require his oil and gas… energy prices have now become the global concern and they’re very much at the beginning of global security,” McTeague explained.
“The longer this goes on that we don’t address the fundamental shortage of gasoline… the longer and more likely we’ll see prices move higher than would be economically tolerable.”
In response, Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne told reporters on Parliament Hill Wednesday that he has asked the Competition Bureau to keep an eye on gas prices, noting that he has spoken to companies about boosting domestic production to counteract any possible shortages.
Meanwhile, oil prices surged over seven per cent on Tuesday to their highest since 2014, as a global agreement to release crude reserves failed to calm fears about supply disruptions.
“The fact that the price of oil has now risen 45 to 50 per cent from this time last year is nothing short of dramatic and it will have consequences far beyond the price of fuel,” McTeague said.
“More importantly the Canadian dollar is not responding as it has in the past to defend against the U.S. dollar… the fact that it takes still 127 pennies to buy a U.S. dollar adds about 17 cents to the litre of gasoline and diesel and provides an inflationary hit to pretty much everything we buy in this country.”
This comes as the Bank of Canada increased its key rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 0.5 per cent on Wednesday in a bid to help fight inflation, which is at its highest level since 1991, putting an even greater strain on Canadian’s wallets.
“Clearly as a result of the run-up in oil prices we’ve seen in the last couple of weeks, there is more upside risk to inflation,” Douglas Porter, chief economist and managing director of BMO Financial Group, told CTV News.
“I personally believe that the run-up in gas prices is the single most stressful aspect of everything that’s going on. No doubt it adds to the mix. That’s why it makes the banks’ decision [to raise interest rates] so difficult in this environment.”
- With files from the Canadian Press and Reuters
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